Greyhound Handicapping - How To Find Value

Value is a buzzword right now in handicapping circles. We heard it in almost every commentary on the Kentucky Derby. I hear it all the time at the greyhound track when handicappers are talking about what they like in the next race, and why they like it. Everyone assumes that they know what it means, but does it mean the same thing to everyone? What does it mean to you and how do you find it when you handicap a dog race?

To me, finding value means finding a dog that is underrated and playing it to win and/or place and in exactas with other dogs I like in that race. For instance, in a race where there's a standout dog - one who wins 2 out of 3 of its races or more - I might put a dog who wins almost as often but places more often into an exacta box with the standout dog. The standout dog might pay peanuts to win, but a decent amount in an exacta with the value dog. I'll also use that dog in other exotics, like trifectas and superfectas. And let's not forget Pick 3's and Pick 4's and the like.

Figuring out whether a dog is a "value" play is mostly a matter of figuring out how often it comes in and comparing that to its odds in the race its running today. If you bet that dog in every one of its races, how often would it have won and at what payoff? If it wins an average of 1 in 10 races, and pays $10 a race, odds of less than 1-10 aren't going to give you the payoff you need on it. It's not worth risking more money than you can reasonably expect to win on a dog.

Of course, there's more to handicapping than odds and statistics. When we look at a race, we have to look at the factors that will determine who hits the board in that race, things like speed, running style, post position and track bias, if any, on that day. Actually, these are the things we should consider BEFORE we look for value in a race. So, first handicap the race and then look for value by finding a dog that is at higher odds than it should be, based on its likelihood of coming in, judging by its past history in that type of race at that track.

Greyhound Handicapping - Weather and Track Condition Tips

Handicapping is an art, not a science. Never is this more obvious than when the weather affects the track and we have to figure out how it will affect the dogs we like. When the weather is sunny and warm and there's been enough rain in the last few days, the track will most probably be rated as "Fast" and its surface condition won't affect the running of the race that much.

But when it rains, or when it's snowy, dry or very windy - what then? Rain is tricky. If it just rains a little - like it does in Florida's afternoon showers - it might speed up the times a little, but have little effect otherwise. But when it rains heavily over a period of days, or when there's a very heavy shower before or during racing, it's a different story.

On most tracks, heavy rain really affects dogs that run the rail, because that's where the water pools up. That's when I look at mid-track runners. And if it's really, really pouring down, I even look at dogs that run wide and outside, because that's sometimes the fastest part of the track in these conditions. I also like dogs that get out early, because they aren't getting spattered with mud from the other greyhounds.

In colder weather though, I like closers, especially if there's a cold rain and a lot of wind. Breakers tend to fade in weather like this, while the closers, who have more stamina, can hang in there to close at the wire. When times are slow, watch for the dogs who have stamina but lack early speed to finally have enough time to jockey for position and do better than they do when the pace of the race is too fast for them.

When you're playing simulcast races, don't forget to watch the first race and pay attention to both the weather forecast and to what you can see of the track. Note the time of the first race and compare it to recent times for that grade at that track. If it's faster or slower than normal, keep that in mind when you handicap. Faster times favor early speed and slower times usually favor closers, in my experience. Paying close attention to the weather and to the current conditions at the track you're playing is one way to improve your chances of making money at the dog track.