Value is a buzzword right now in handicapping circles. We heard it in almost every commentary on the Kentucky Derby. I hear it all the time at the greyhound track when handicappers are talking about what they like in the next race, and why they like it. Everyone assumes that they know what it means, but does it mean the same thing to everyone? What does it mean to you and how do you find it when you handicap a dog race?
To me, finding value means finding a dog that is underrated and playing it to win and/or place and in exactas with other dogs I like in that race. For instance, in a race where there's a standout dog - one who wins 2 out of 3 of its races or more - I might put a dog who wins almost as often but places more often into an exacta box with the standout dog. The standout dog might pay peanuts to win, but a decent amount in an exacta with the value dog. I'll also use that dog in other exotics, like trifectas and superfectas. And let's not forget Pick 3's and Pick 4's and the like.
Figuring out whether a dog is a "value" play is mostly a matter of figuring out how often it comes in and comparing that to its odds in the race its running today. If you bet that dog in every one of its races, how often would it have won and at what payoff? If it wins an average of 1 in 10 races, and pays $10 a race, odds of less than 1-10 aren't going to give you the payoff you need on it. It's not worth risking more money than you can reasonably expect to win on a dog.
Of course, there's more to handicapping than odds and statistics. When we look at a race, we have to look at the factors that will determine who hits the board in that race, things like speed, running style, post position and track bias, if any, on that day. Actually, these are the things we should consider BEFORE we look for value in a race. So, first handicap the race and then look for value by finding a dog that is at higher odds than it should be, based on its likelihood of coming in, judging by its past history in that type of race at that track.
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